Rent vs income tables: what the numbers actually say

A national average rent sounds affordable. Run the same federal numbers on the metro you actually rent in, and the answer can flip. The two federal rent tables behind the 30% rule show why.

The rule the tables use

The rent-to-income ratio divides monthly rent by gross monthly income, and HUD counts any household above 30% as cost-burdened. Rent budget = gross monthly income × 0.30. Income needed = monthly rent × 40. A rent of 1,190, the FY2027 2BR FMR median, needs 47,600 of annual income to sit on that line. The 30% line traces to the Brooke Amendment of 1969, which capped public housing rents at 25% of income; Congress raised the standard to 30% in 1981.

The HUD FMR is a 40th percentile gross rent, shelter rent plus utilities. The Census ACS median gross rent is the 50th percentile across every renter paying cash, long-tenured leases included. Same columns, different renters.

Three metros, one test

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| New York, NY metro | 3,295 | 1,887 | 99,852 | 39.6% | 131,800 |

| Miami, FL metro | 2,560 | 2,149 | 80,625 | 38.1% | 102,400 |

| Boston, MA metro | 2,820 | 2,221 | 117,825 | 28.7% | 112,800 |

| National, 51,871 ZIP rows | 1,190 | 1,490 | 81,604 | 17.5% | 47,600 |

The national row is a median across 51,871 ZIP rows, and nobody rents in a national average. Against their own incomes, New York and Miami sit far above the line; Boston stays under at 28.7%. Miami fails even on observed rents. Its ACS median of 2,149 takes 32.0% of local median income, because incomes sit near the national median while rents run coastal.

New York runs the other way. Its ACS median of 1,887 takes only 22.7% of local income, because the median tenant signed years ago at a lower rent, while the FMR prices the recent mover. Renter households earn less than the all-household medians above, so the real ratios run higher still.

State tables hide the same thing one level up

The affordability-by-state table in our US Housing Affordability Pack joins the FY2026 and FY2027 state summaries: 40 states up, 9 down, 3 flat. Vermont moved most, 1,410 to 1,630, a 15.6% jump for a 2BR. Arizona fell 5.6%, 1,610 to 1,520. State 2BR medians span 610 to 2,600.

A state median is a median of ZIPs, not an average of counties, so it weights where people rent. It will not match your city. California's 2027 median sits at 2,600, and its county columns run from Modoc County at 1,084 to Santa Cruz County at 4,254.

Run your own two numbers

Multiply the rent you are quoted by 40, compare against your income, then pull the ZIP-level row before you decide anything. The [US Housing Affordability Pack](https://www.getly.store/product/us-housing-affordability-pack-hud-fmr-zip-county-metro-eurostat-unemployment-house-prices-68-209-rows-csv-mtwanrjt) ships the FY2027 ZIP, county, metro, and state tables in one schema among its 14 tables, 68,209 rows, frozen 2026-09-10. The per-table HUD and Eurostat files stay free on the data-vault catalog either way.